Recent situation of demand for new energy buses in Europe
2025 bidding and delivery volume: The bidding volume of new energy buses in Europe in 2025 is about 12,000 units, and the delivery volume in 2026 is the bidding volume this year. There is a two-year time difference.
1. Bidding and delivery of new energy buses in Europe
2025 bidding and delivery volume: The bidding volume of new energy buses in Europe in 2025 is about 12,000 units, and the delivery volume in 2026 is the bidding volume this year. There is a two-year time difference. The delivery volume this year may be between 8,000 and 9,000 units, and the delivery volume next year may be close to 12,000 units.
Changes in bidding and delivery volume over the years: The bidding volume in 2019 was 2,300 units, 6,000 units in 2020, 6,100 units in 2021, 8,000 units in 2022, 9,100 units in 2023, and about 12,000 units in 2024. In terms of delivery volume over the years, the delivery volume last year was about 6,000 units, which is close to the delivery volume from 2021 to 2022.
Market capacity of different types of buses: The total annual volume of the European bus market is about 30,000 to 40,000 units, of which urban buses account for half, about 15,000 to 18,000 units: about 10,000 intercity buses and about 7,000 coaches.
Delivery and bidding of urban buses: This year, the delivery volume of urban buses is about 8,000 units, accounting for 55%, and the bidding volume is 12,000 units, accounting for 75%. Intercity buses and coaches account for a small proportion, but the growth is fast. The small citybus market is gradually emerging in Eastern Europe. Future growth point: Intercity buses will grow significantly from 2027, similar to the changes in urban bus bidding in 2020.
2. Price situation of new energy bus market in Europe
Average bidding price in different regions: The average price of 12-meter buses in Northern Europe and Western Europe is about 450,000 euros for Chinese brands and about 480,000 euros for European brands; the average price in Southern Europe fluctuates between 420,000 and 440,000 euros, and the average price in Central and Eastern Europe is about 350,000 euros.
Price change trend: From 2020 to 2024, the price difference between Chinese brands and European brands will gradually approach, and Chinese brands will still be relatively cheap. The price of Chinese brands in the Nordic region will change from 390,000 to 520,000 euros to 430,000 to 480,000 euros, and the price of European local brands will change from 480,000 to 550,000 euros to 460,000 to 520,000 euros. In Central Europe, Chinese brands will change from 300,000 to 420,000 euros to 330,000 to 400,000 euros, and local brands will change from 380,000 to 450,000 euros to 370,000 to 420,000 euros.
3. Profit situation of the European new energy bus market
Profit margin of the European market: The profit margin of the European bus market is relatively high and stable, ranging from about 30% to 50%. It is mainly customized production, and it is difficult to produce scale effects.
Profit margin differences in different regions: Although the average price of buses in different regions is different, the profit margin difference is not large. Eastern Europe has relatively low requirements for product quality and performance, a large space for material selection, relatively low costs, and still high profit margins: Nordic and Western Europe have many configurations, localization requirements, and stable profits.
Profit margin comparison between Chinese and European brands: The profit margin of Chinese brands is about 30%, or even higher, reaching 50%, while the profit margin of European brands is about 25%.
4. Competition in the European new energy bus market
Market characteristics in different regions: The Nordic market tends to be stable, with little room for growth and a penetration rate close to saturation; Western Europe is unstable and greatly affected by local policy changes; Eastern Europe is the main growth point, with different difficulties and challenges in bidding for Chinese companies, and relatively fierce price competition, but it is also the main growth point for Chinese companies.
Differences in thresholds in different regions: The thresholds in Western Europe and Northern Europe are higher, and Western Europe is higher than Northern Europe, and is more inclined to local brands, with technical certification barriers. The threshold in Eastern Europe is lower, with price as the main guide, and Chinese companies have greater room for growth in Eastern Europe.
5. Certification and localization requirements for the European new energy bus market
Bus certification: With the strength of Chinese brands, it is not a big problem to pass the EU bus certification. The main difficulty lies in some special localization certification requirements, which require local personnel to collect information and answer questions, and also require local service providers to provide services, manage after-sales operations and increase the localization rate.
Localization rate requirement: The EU localization rate requirement is not mandatory, but more of a bonus item. Currently, it refers to the EU as a reference system. Enterprises with local plans have a high probability of winning the bid. For example, enterprises with factories in Hungary have a high probability of winning the Hungarian bid.
6. The driving force and price trend of Europe's promotion of new energy buses
Driving factors: The European new energy bus market is mainly driven by government subsidies, which subsidize the price difference between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. At the same time, government guidance plays an important role in bus demand.
Price trend: The purchase cost of new energy vehicles is higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles. On the one hand, it is the subsidy factor. On the other hand, in the TCO calculation of new energy buses, its total life cycle cost is higher in terms of service fees in Europe. Chinese brands can make the cost of new energy buses cheaper than fuel vehicles, while European brands are difficult to reduce prices due to scale, cost control and other issues. In the long run, there is uncertainty as to whether the high premium rate in the new energy market can be maintained.
Profit margin of traditional fuel vehicle companies: The profit margin of traditional fuel vehicle companies in Europe is relatively stable.
7. Future development trend of the European new energy bus market
Government top-level design: The EU has a clear plan for carbon dioxide emission standards and is unlikely to turn to traditional fuel vehicles to support local companies, especially in the field of buses. In the future, Europe may choose some Chinese brands to enter the market and require them to integrate with local industries.
Impact of subsidy reduction: The decline in government subsidies may affect the penetration of non-urban bus new energy buses, but the new energy trend of urban buses is relatively clear.
European car companies' capacity: The capacity of local European car companies is not very clear, but it feels that the capacity is declining or basically unchanged, which is also the reason why some car companies have moved to China.
Changes in delivery and share of Chinese companies: The situation where local European companies cannot deliver vehicles has occurred, and Chinese brands such as Yutong and BYD have become winners, and this situation will continue. The share of Chinese companies in European new energy bus bidding is about 30%, and there is an increasing trend, which may rise to 50% in the future. Among them, BYD's share has declined, but sales have increased, and its cake may be divided by other Chinese brands.
Planning of Chinese car companies in Europe: Yutong is increasing investment in Europe, has long-term partners in Northern Europe, and is developing towards Southern Europe, while promoting intercity and coach vehicles. BYD pays more attention to local integration, maintaining a certain share and obtaining more projects. Other Chinese brands such as King Long are more focused on Eastern Europe and Southern Europe, starting with price-sensitive regions and small orders. Yutong's local market coverage is close to that of BYD two or three years ago. Other Chinese brands are at least five years behind BYD and Yutong. Except for Yutong, no obvious rapid improvement has been seen.